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Calibrated sports totals research

ProEdge Analytics

A multi-sport modeling pipeline for comparing model distributions with market totals—without presenting a black-box pick feed.

Role
Machine learning · API · Observability
Year
2025

01 / Interactive system slice

Inspect the workflow

Public sandbox · real engine with clearly labeled cached and preview states
PEPROEDGE

LIVE TOOL PUBLIC SANDBOX

MODEL v2.4 · CALIBRATED
DETERMINISTIC PREVIEW

Starting the free-tier service…

MatchupGame dateSportLineModelConfOutEdge
Phoenix @ DenverNBA226.5OVER 64%28%0OVER 226.5 +7.2%
Buffalo @ MiamiNFL48.5UNDER 61%22%1UNDER 48.5 +5.4%
Seattle @ HoustonMLB7.5OVER 57%14%0OVER 7.5 +3.1%

Deterministic preview · selected matchup

Phoenix @ Denver

Market date ·
Model signalOVER 226.5+7.2% model edge
Market line
226.5
Over
64%
Under
36%
Confidence
28%
P(over) CI
54–73%
Players out
0
Away 0 · Home 0
Line movement
0.0
Team inputs
Baseline
No live team context returned
LINE MATRIX

Threshold detail is unavailable for this cached row.

Data sourceDeterministic previewBoard scanSchedule precisionProvider market date; exact tipoff not supplied

Model estimates are research outputs, not a profitability claim.

02 / Engineering evidence

Claims with boundaries

Derived from the local implementation and offline artifacts.

Coverage

3 sportsNFL, NBA, and MLB pipeline adapters.

Feature surface

200+Pace, efficiency, context, and market-derived inputs.

Validation

Walk-forwardTime-ordered evaluation designed to avoid future leakage.

Problem

Why this exists

Point forecasts hide uncertainty, while random train/test splits overstate performance on time-dependent sports data.

System

How it is bounded

The pipeline builds time-safe features, ensembles tree models, calibrates probabilities, and monitors drift. The board foregrounds the interval and the market comparison rather than a promise of profit.

Outcome

What the demo proves

A research surface that makes uncertainty, model-market disagreement, and evaluation methodology inspectable.

Implementation surface

FastAPIPostgreSQLXGBoostLightGBMGrafana

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